How a financial plan could alleviate your inflation worries

The uncertainty of how the cost of living will change during your lifetime can make long-term planning difficult. After all, how can you be certain how your expenses will change in 20 years or more? If you’re worried about the effect of inflation on your security, a financial plan could provide peace of mind. 

Research from Ipsos found that inflation is the number one global concern in 2024. Among the 29 countries that are part of the research, 35% of people say inflation is their top concern – in Great Britain, 37% said they were worried about it. 

Given the soaring cost of living over the last two years, it’s not surprising that it’s on many peoples’ minds. Inflation has placed pressure on household budgets around the world, and it may have affected your long-term plans too. For example, you might have cut back your savings or pension contributions to reflect rising day-to-day costs.

In the UK, the Bank of England (BoE) aims to keep inflation at 2%. However, it began to rise above this target in mid-2021 following the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine. Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 – the highest figure recorded in more than 40 years. 

While inflation is now nearing the BoE target at 2.3% in the 12 months to April 2024, you might be concerned about how another period of high inflation could affect you in the future. Luckily, a financial plan can help. Here’s how.

A financial plan could help you calculate how your assets and expenses will change over time

A key part of financial planning is understanding how to create long-term financial security. To do this, you’ll often consider how the value of your assets and your outgoings will change over time.

Cashflow modelling could help you visualise the data and see how your assets will change over decades. 

You often start by inputting the value of your assets now, from savings to property. Then, you can assess how they might change during your lifetime. Some of the changes will be based on your actions. For example, if you’re regularly contributing to your pension, the value is likely to grow. 

Other changes might be outside of your control, but you can make certain assumptions to give you an idea of your long-term wealth. For instance, if you’re investing, you might assume that the returns will be 5% each year based on your investment strategy.

Investment returns cannot be guaranteed, and there are likely to be years where your portfolio falls short of or exceeds this assumption. Even so, cashflow modelling can still provide a useful indicator of the value of your assets at different points in your life. 

You’ll also need to input your expenses and factor in how these might change too. This is where you may want to consider inflation. You may account for the cost of living rising by 2% each year in line with the BoE’s target. 

Of course, the unexpected does happen, including inflation rising above the BoE’s target. Cashflow modelling could help you understand how the unexpected might affect your finances.

Cashflow modelling may help you visualise the effect of high inflation 

You can change the assumptions used in cashflow modelling to answer your questions and understand how different scenarios would affect your finances.

For example, you can change the data to calculate how inflation of 8% when you’re retired would affect how quickly you deplete your pension or other assets. 

With a clearer idea about the effect high inflation could have on your financial circumstances, you might take steps to reduce the potential impact. You may choose to ensure you have other assets to fall back on to provide peace of mind, or you could focus on how to grow your wealth through steps like investing so you’re in a better position in a high-inflation environment.

Cashflow modelling can be useful if you want to model other scenarios too. For example, you could see how:

• Taking a lump sum from your pension would affect your income in retirement

• You’d weather a financial shock if you were unable to work due to an illness

• Lower than expected investment returns may impact the value of your estate

• Gifting assets to loved ones could affect your long-term financial security

• Needing to pay for care later in life could affect your wealth

• You could retire early by taking a lower income or increasing contributions during your working life.

So, financial planning could be beneficial if you want to be prepared, both for reaching your goals and for the unexpected.

Contact us to talk about how to manage the impact of inflation on your finances 

There could be steps you can take to manage the risk of inflation affecting your finances in the future. Please contact us to arrange a meeting to discuss your long-term financial plan and how we could support you. 

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate cashflow planning. 

3 practical reasons to check your State Pension forecast before you retire

The State Pension is often a useful foundation when you’re creating an income in retirement. Yet, a survey from Just Group found that a third of people didn’t check their State Pension forecast before stopping work.

While the State Pension might not be your primary income in retirement, it’s often valuable because it’s reliable – you’ll receive a regular income when you reach State Pension Age for the rest of your life. In addition, under the triple lock, the State Pension also increases each tax year, which could help maintain your spending power throughout retirement.

So, if you’ve been neglecting your State Pension, it might be worth giving it some attention. Here are three practical reasons to check your State Pension before you retire.

1. The State Pension Age is rising and could be later than you expect

The State Pension Age is the earliest date you can claim your State Pension, and it depends on when you were born.

Currently, the State Pension Age is 66 for both men and women. However, it is slowly rising. For those born after 5 April 1960, there will be a phased increase in State Pension Age to 68. So, the date you can claim the State Pension might be later than you expect.

While further increases haven’t been announced by the government, there are expectations that the State Pension Age will rise again in the future as life expectancy increases. Indeed, the International Longevity Centre calculates the State Pension Age will need to rise to 71 by 2050 to maintain the current ratio of workers to retirees. 

Checking your State Pension forecast before you plan to retire could help you avoid a potential financial shock if you can’t claim it when you expect. 

2. You might want to fill in National Insurance gaps to increase your State Pension

In 2024/25, the full new State Pension is £221.20 a week – more than £11,500 a year. However, to receive the full amount, you will normally need to have made at least 35 qualifying years of National Insurance (NI) contributions. If you have fewer qualifying years, you’ll often receive a portion of the full amount.

If you’re not entitled to the full new State Pension due to gaps in your NI record, you may be able to buy additional years. In some cases, this could boost your income during retirement.

Typically, a full NI year costs £824 and could add up to £302.64 each year to your pre-tax State Pension income. So, you may not need to claim the State Pension for long before you benefit financially.

Before you fill in the gaps, you may want to consider your retirement plans. If you’re still several years away from retirement, you might reach the 35 qualifying years you need without making voluntary contributions.

You can usually only fill in the gaps in your NI record for the last six tax years. So, checking your State Pension forecast before you retire could identify a way to boost your income.

If you want to make voluntary NI contributions, you’ll need to contact HMRC to get a reference and find out exactly how much filling in the gaps could cost you. 

3. Your State Pension could affect your wider retirement plan

Understanding how much you’ll receive from the State Pension and when you can claim it might play an important role in your wider financial plan.

While the money you receive from the State Pension might not be your main source of income in retirement, it could provide a useful foundation to build on. By factoring it in, you might find that you’re on track for a more comfortable retirement than you expected, or that you could afford to withdraw a lump sum from your pension at the start of retirement to tick off bucket list items.

Checking your State Pension forecast could mean you’re in a better position to make retirement decisions, including how you’ll use other assets to support your lifestyle goals.

You can check your State Pension forecast quickly online

Checking your State Pension forecast is often simple. You can use the government tool here or the HMRC app. You can also contact the Future Pension Centre if you’d prefer to receive the information by post, so long as your State Pension Age is more than 30 days away.

Get in touch to talk about your retirement income

The State Pension is often just part of the income you’ll receive in retirement. We could help you create a retirement plan that brings together the different sources of income you might have, including workplace pensions, annuities, investments, property, and more.

Please contact us to talk about your retirement plans and the support we could provide as you prepare for the next chapter of your life.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

How to beat the potential harmful effects of “loss aversion” on your wealth

“Loss aversion” is a type of bias that could affect how you manage your finances. It’s a concept that was developed by renowned psychologist Daniel Kahneman, who won a Nobel Prize for his influential work and sadly passed away in March 2024. To celebrate his life, read on to find out more about loss aversion and how it could impact you.

One of Kahneman’s main arguments is that people’s behaviours are rooted in decision-making. He noted that bias and heuristics – the mental shortcuts you make to solve problems – are important for making judgements quickly. However, the downside to quick decision-making is that errors can occur. One of the biases he defined was loss aversion.

Losses are more “painful” than gains

In 1979, Kahneman and his associate Amos Tversky coined the term “loss aversion” in a paper. They claimed: “The response to losses is stronger than the response to corresponding gains.”

In a study, Kahneman and Tversky asked participants if they’d rather have a:

A. 50% chance of winning 1,000 Israeli pounds and 50% chance of winning nothing

B. 100% chance of winning 450 Israeli pounds.

People were more likely to choose option B, despite the potential for larger returns if they chose A. The research found that loss aversion gets stronger as the stake or choice grows larger.

Further research highlighted that loss aversion could affect decision-making skills even when the risk of losing was very low. For example, participants were asked which option was more attractive:

A. A 33% chance of winning $1,500, a 66% chance of winning $1,400, and a 1% chance of winning $0.

B.  Winning a guaranteed $920.

Even though option A only had a 1% chance of winning nothing – and the other outcomes were better than option B – loss aversion theory suggests that people are still more likely to choose option B as they think in terms of their current wealth rather than absolute payoffs.

The theory suggests that you’d feel losses more keenly than gains, which could affect how you manage your finances.

2 ways loss aversion could affect your investment decisions

There are many ways loss aversion might affect your decisions, particularly when you’re investing. Here are two examples.

1. Loss aversion may mean you’re more likely to react to investment volatility

If you want to avoid losses, you may be more likely to make knee-jerk decisions if markets experience volatility, whether it’s your investments that have fallen or the wider market. Snap judgements that are based on fear and other emotions could lead to decisions that aren’t right for you.

2. Loss aversion could mean you’re reluctant to let go of assets

In contrast to the first example, loss aversion could mean you hold on to assets even after it made sense to sell them as part of your wider investment strategy because you don’t want to make a loss. In some cases, it could mean the loss grows or that your overall portfolio is no longer aligned with your risk profile and goals.  

How to reduce the effect of loss aversion on your financial decisions

Bias affects everyone when they’re making decisions. It can be useful if you need to make decisions quickly based on your previous experiences and information. Yet, when you want to make financial decisions based on logic, there are ways to reduce the effect loss aversion might be having.

·  Try to emotionally detach from your finances

It can be hard to limit the effect emotions have on your financial decisions. After all, your finances are likely to play an important role in how secure you feel and whether you’re able to reach your goals. Yet, not letting emotions rule your decisions could limit the impact of bias.

Avoiding reading the news, which might report on how markets are “soaring” or “tumbling” could help you reduce decisions that are based on emotions rather than facts. Similarly, while it might be tempting to check in on your investments every day, doing so less frequently could help you manage the emotional effects volatility can have. 

· Create speed bumps to slow down

Emotional decisions are more likely to happen in response to a particular event. For loss aversion, you might decide to sell investments after hearing in the news that a “crash” is coming, or after your investments have experienced a dip.

Often, a bit of time to think gives you a chance to reassess your initial decisions and removes some of the bias that may have been influencing you. So, creating speed bumps to slow you down might be useful. For instance, making yourself wait two days before actioning any changes to your investments may provide the space you need to think logically.

There will still be times when you decide acting on information is right for you. A speed bump might mean you feel more confident about the decision because you’ve given it extra thought.

·  Look at the bigger picture

When you’re investing, it’s likely the value of your assets will fall at some point. Looking at the wider picture could help you put the losses into perspective and consider how to respond.

Let’s say a particular stock has fallen by 10% in a week. No one wants to see that when they review their investments, but how has it performed over the long term? If that stock has delivered consistent growth over several years, you may still have made a gain over the long term, and its value could bounce back.

In addition, how has the value of that stock performed in relation to other assets you hold? Gains in other areas might help to balance it out and mean that, overall, your wealth hasn’t fallen.

· Work with a financial planner

Working with a finance professional may help you better understand when bias is affecting your decisions. Having someone with a different perspective who understands your circumstances and goals may be valuable. They could highlight when you’d benefit from taking a step back and considering alternative options.

Please contact us if you’d like to arrange a meeting with a financial planner. We can discuss how we could support your goals and work with you to create a tailored financial plan.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

4 compelling reasons you might want to consolidate your pension

It’s been more than a decade since auto-enrolment was introduced, and now most workers automatically become members of their employer’s pension scheme. While more people saving for retirement is excellent news, it could mean you end up juggling multiple pots.

One option is to transfer one pension to another, known as “consolidation”. It’s usually simple to do and there are many reasons why you might want to transfer a pension. However, there are also some potential drawbacks that you may wish to weigh up first.

Here are four compelling reasons you might want to transfer one pension to another.

1. It could make it easier to keep track of your savings during your working life

With each job potentially providing you with a pension, the number of pots you might need to manage could become overwhelming during your working life. Indeed, according to Zippia, the average person has 12 different jobs in their lifetime.

Keeping track of several pensions can be difficult. Not only could it make calculating if you’re on track for retirement challenging, but it may be easier to “lose” some of your savings too. According to Aviva, there could be as many as 2.8 million lost pensions in the UK, with a combined value of £26.6 billion.

Consolidating your pension could make handling your retirement plans easier during your working life.

2. Fewer pensions could make creating a retirement income simpler

Similarly, managing multiple pensions in retirement could also be complicated. If you’re juggling several pots, you might need to consider how to spread withdrawals across them and regularly review how the value of each one has changed to ensure withdrawals are sustainable.

Transferring your pensions could make the decisions you make once you retire simpler and your finances easier to manage throughout the next stage of your life.

3. Pension consolidation could reduce the fees you pay overall

Usually, you’ll pay a fee to your pension provider for running your pension scheme and investing on your behalf. This may be a set amount or a percentage of your total pension pot.

Fees vary between providers, so it may be worth reviewing how much you’re paying each pension scheme and considering if transferring could reduce the overall cost. Lower fees mean more of your contributions will be invested for your retirement, which could help your savings grow at a faster pace.

4. You could transfer your retirement savings to a scheme that is performing well

Typically, your pension is invested with the aim of delivering long-term growth. So, transferring your money to a scheme that has investment options that suit your needs or perform well could deliver a boost to the value of your pension over the long term.

When you’re reviewing the performance of your pension, remember to focus on the long term. Short-term market movements may affect the value of your pension, but over a longer time frame markets have, historically, delivered returns.

3 essential reasons you might choose not to transfer your pension

While there might be a good case for transferring your pension, there are reasons not to do so too. Here are three reasons you may decide to leave your retirement savings with your current pension scheme.

1. You have a defined benefit (DB) pension

A DB pension, also known as a “final salary pension”, would provide you with a guaranteed income from your retirement date for the rest of your life to create long-term security. They are often generous, and it usually doesn’t make financial sense to transfer out of a DB pension.

You will normally need to receive specialist financial advice to transfer out of a DB pension to ensure you understand the benefits you’d be losing.

Transferring out of a DB scheme is unlikely to be in the best interests of or be suitable for most people.

2. Your pension provides additional benefits

When you transfer out of a pension, you’d lose any additional benefits that come with it. So, it might be worth reviewing what your pension offers and whether benefits could be valuable to you.

For example, your pension could allow you to access your savings earlier, which might be useful if you want to retire sooner, or provide a guaranteed annuity rate when you start to take an income from it.

3. Withdrawing from small pension pots could be useful

Having several smaller pension pots might be useful if you want to access some of your savings and continue to contribute. “Small pots” are usually defined as a pension with a value of less than £10,000.

In some cases, you might be able to withdraw money from a small pot without triggering the Money Purchase Annual Allowance, which would reduce the amount you can tax-efficiently contribute to a pension in 2024/25 to just £10,000, compared to the usual £60,000.

Considering your retirement plans and reviewing each pension before you decide to transfer it to another scheme could help you decide if consolidation is right for you.

You should also note that transferring your pension may come with a fee. Make sure you understand the potential cost before you proceed.

Contact us to arrange a meeting to discuss your pension and retirement

If you’re thinking about consolidating your pensions and would like to understand if it’s the right decision for you, please get in touch. We can provide tailored advice about your retirement plan and how you could turn goals into a reality.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates, and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts. 

Will disputes are on the rise. Here are 7 pragmatic steps you could take to minimise conflicts

A will is an important way of outlining what you’d like to happen to your assets when you pass away. Yet, figures suggest will disputes are on the rise. If you’re worried about potential conflicts when you pass away, read on to discover some useful steps you might want to take.

According to a report in the Guardian, thousands of families have been embroiled in disputes dubbed “ruinously expensive” by solicitors. As well as the potential legal costs, court cases can be emotionally draining and place pressure on your loved ones.

In 2021/22, 195 disputes went to court, up from 145 in 2017. While the figure is low, it’s thought to be just the tip of the iceberg as many cases are settled out of court. Indeed, the report suggests that as many as 10,000 families in England and Wales are disputing wills every year.

A dispute could mean your assets aren’t passed on in a way that aligns with your wishes, or even that someone who you wanted to benefit from your estate is overlooked. If it’s a situation you’re worried about, here are seven steps you could take to reduce the risk of your will being overturned.

1.  Speak to loved ones about your wishes

Speaking to your family about your wishes can be difficult. Nonetheless, it could be an important conversation and mean there are no surprises when your will is read, which could reduce the chance of a dispute arising.

If someone in your life discovers they will inherit less than expected or are not a beneficiary in your will after your passing, they may be more likely to react negatively – especially if they’re also grieving your loss. Discussing it during your lifetime could give them time to come to terms with the decision, as well as allow you to explain your reasons. 

2.  Write a letter of wishes

Similarly, you can write a letter of wishes that could be read alongside your will. This provides an opportunity to explain why you’ve made certain decisions, which could be useful for beneficiaries, the executor of your estate, and, if a dispute arises, the court.

You should take care that the letter of wishes doesn’t contradict what’s written in your will – you may want to ask a solicitor to review it to minimise mistakes.

3.  Include a no-contest clause in your will

You could choose to add a no-contest clause to your will. It doesn’t mean that someone can’t raise a dispute, but it can act as a deterrent. Essentially, the clause means that if someone did challenge your will and lose their dispute, they would forfeit any inheritance they may have been entitled to.

So, if you’re worried that a beneficiary could challenge your will to try and receive a larger proportion of your assets, adding a no-contest clause might be useful.

4.  Hire a solicitor to write your will

You can write your will yourself without any professional legal support. Yet, a solicitor could provide essential guidance and check the language of your will.

For example, if you’ve used vague or contradictory phrases, there could be a greater opportunity for disputes to arise. It could be particularly important if your estate or plans are complex. Choosing to hire a solicitor may help you feel more confident that your wishes will be carried out.

5.  Ask a medical practitioner to witness your will

For your will to be valid, it must be made or acknowledged in the presence of two witnesses. To act as a witness, a person must:

· Be aged over 18 (16 in Scotland)

· Have the mental capacity to understand what they are signing

· Not be related to the person making the will or have a personal interest in the will.

However, if you’re worried that your will could be contested on medical grounds, you might want to ask a medical practitioner, such as your GP, to witness it. This could prevent later accusations that you weren’t of sound mind when writing your will. 

6.  Regularly review your will

One of the reasons why a dispute may occur is that your beneficiaries don’t believe your will reflects your circumstances when you pass away. So, a regular review might be useful.

Going over your will every five years or following major life events could ensure it remains up-to-date. For example, you might want to make changes after you welcome a new grandchild into the family, remarry, or your wealth changes significantly.

7.  Store your will in a safe place

Finally, make sure your will is stored in a safe place and your executor knows where it is. If you’ve rewritten your will, be sure to destroy previous ones to avoid potential confusion.

Understanding your estate could help you make decisions about your will

If you’re deciding how to distribute your assets or need to update your will, understanding your estate could be an important step. Calculating the value of various assets and how they might change during your lifetime could alter how you want to pass them on. Please contact us to talk about your will and wider estate plan.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning.

3 useful options you may want to consider when passing on assets to your loved ones

There’s more than one way to pass on wealth to your family. Which option is right for you could depend on a range of factors, from whether your loved ones could benefit from support now to the implications of Inheritance Tax (IHT).

Read on to find out what you might want to consider when passing on assets using three different methods.

1. Gifting during your lifetime

Providing gifts to loved ones during your lifetime is becoming an increasingly popular option. With younger generations often facing financial challenges, a gift now could provide greater security than if they received an inheritance later in life.

Being able to support your loved ones when they need it most is a key benefit of gifting during your lifetime. It could mean your family can get on the property ladder, pursue further education, or simply manage their budget more effectively.

Many young people rely on family to reach milestones. Research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies found that around half of first-time buyers in their 20s received some financial help. Not only did this allow them to buy a home, but it could improve their finances over the long term, especially if they were able to access a lower mortgage interest rate as a result.

In addition, gifting during your lifetime could be useful if your estate may be liable for IHT.

Gifts that were given more than seven years before you passed away are not usually included in your estate for IHT purposes. Some gifts, including up to £3,000 in the 2024/25 tax year, are considered immediately outside of your estate when calculating IHT.

As a result, you could gift assets to reduce the overall value of your estate to mitigate or reduce an IHT bill.

In 2024/25, the nil-rate band is £325,000 – if the entire value of your estate is below this threshold, no IHT will be due. If your estate exceeds this threshold there are often other allowances and steps you may take to reduce the bill. Please contact us if your estate could be liable for IHT.

Whether you want to gift a lump sum or lend regular financial support, there are some key areas you may want to consider before you put your hand in your pocket, including:

· How could taking wealth out of your estate now affect your long-term financial security?

· As you’ll be gifting assets during your lifetime, will it affect the inheritances you leave behind for loved ones?

Financial planning could help you assess the implications of gifting to help you understand if it’s the right option for you.

2. Passing on assets in a will

Leaving assets to your loved ones when you pass away is the traditional way to pass on wealth, and it’s an option that’s still right for many people.

It might be attractive because you want to leave a legacy to your beneficiaries. It could provide a wealth boost to your family later in their life and might be used to support a range of aspirations, like retiring early or sending your grandchildren to private school.

A legacy could also be a good option if you’re worried that gifting during your lifetime could affect your financial security in your later years.

If you want to leave assets to your loved ones when you pass away, it’s important to write a will – it’s a way to state how you’d like your assets to be distributed. If you die without a will, your assets will be passed on according to intestacy rules, which may not align with your wishes.

However, there are drawbacks you might need to consider when leaving assets in a will.

Among them is whether the financial boost will come too late in the lives of your family. If they’re struggling financially now, could receiving some or all their inheritance before you pass away be more beneficial?

Again, it might also be useful to consider if your estate could be liable for IHT when you’re writing a will. If you’re proactive, there are often steps you can take to reduce an eventual bill.

3. Using a trust to hold assets

A trust is a legal arrangement to pass on assets where a trustee manages assets on behalf of the beneficiary according to the trust deed, which allows you, as the “settlor”, to set how the assets in the trust should be used and when.

There are many reasons why you might choose to use a trust, including to:

· Retain greater control over assets you pass on

· Pass on assets to young children or vulnerable adults

· Allow you to pass on assets but still benefit from them during your lifetime

· Preserve wealth for future generations

· Mitigate an IHT bill.

One of the key benefits of a trust is that you can state how the assets are used. So, if you have a clear idea about how you’d like your loved ones to use the wealth you give them, it’s an option you may want to consider. For example, you could create a trust on behalf of your grandchild and state that it’s to be used for education purposes during their childhood, and they can then access the assets once they reach a certain age.

There are several different types of trusts and, once they’re set up, they can be difficult or impossible to reverse. As a result, you might want to seek legal advice when creating a trust to discuss your objectives and whether it’s the right option for you.

Contact us to set up your estate plan

You don’t have to just select one of the options covered in this article. You might choose to pass on some of your wealth now, but leave the rest of it through a will. Or you might decide to gift assets to some loved ones but use a trust for others, such as young children.

A complete estate plan might encompass more than how you’ll pass on assets to loved ones. You might also want to consider what steps you could take to improve your security if you needed care later in life, how to mitigate a potential IHT bill, set out your funeral wishes, and more.

Please contact us to talk about how to prepare for your later years and discuss how we could help you put an estate plan that reflects your wishes in place.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning or Inheritance Tax planning.

Investment market update: April 2024

Interest rates and inflation continued to affect markets around the world in April 2024. Read on to find out what else may have affected investment markets and your portfolio in April.

Expectations of interest rate cuts were good news for gold. Investors who feared falling interest rates would lead to lower returns on cash and government bonds purchased more gold. It led to the asset hitting a record high on 8 April at $2,535 (£3,171) an ounce.

Yet, while many experts are predicting that interest rates will fall, Kristalina Georgieva, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that central banks must resist pressure to cut them too soon. 

UK

The UK ended 2023 in a technical recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The latest figures suggest the UK is already out of the recession. According to the Office for National Statistics, GDP grew slightly by 0.1% in February 2024, following 0.3% growth in January.

UK inflation data was also positive. Inflation in the 12 months to March 2024 was 3.2%. While there’s still some way to go before reaching the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target, it’s the lowest figure recorded since September 2021.

Clare Lombardelli, the newly appointed BoE deputy governor, tempered the news by adding that inflation is likely to be “bumpy” as pricing behaviour isn’t smooth. However, she added that the overall experience for people should be lower and more predictable inflation.

On the back of good news and with a general election looming this year, chancellor Jeremy Hunt told the Financial Times that he’d like to cut taxes in the autumn fiscal statement “if we can”.

While inflation overall is falling, business group British Chamber of Commerce has warned that new Brexit fees and checks could lead to higher food prices in the UK. Importers of animal products from the EU will face an additional charge from 30 April 2024 and new checks will be applied from October.

Data from S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also indicates that growth will continue. The service sector continued to expand in March and the construction industry returned to growth thanks to increased work in infrastructure projects.

Official data shows average wages, excluding bonuses, increased by around 6% between December 2023 and February 2024. Once inflation is factored in, average wages increased by 2.1% in real terms.

Yet, other information suggests many households will continue to financially struggle. A BoE report suggests it expects the number of households and small businesses to default on debt to rise this summer.

A report from consultancy firm KPMG also found that half of consumers are cutting back on non-essential spending. In fact, just 3% of consumers said they had been able to spend more in the first quarter of 2024. Eating out is the most likely expense to be cut from budgets, which could negatively affect the hospitality sector.

In April, the FTSE 100 proved why investors need to be prepared to weather market volatility.

On 12 April, the index of the 100 largest companies on the London Stock Exchange closed at the highest level for over a year. News that the UK is likely to have exited a recession led to the index rising by 0.9%.

However, just days later, on 16 April, the index tumbled by 1.35% and almost every stock on the index was in the red, with mining companies and banks suffering the largest falls. The downturn was linked to a market adjustment after the US Federal Reserve said it may not cut interest rates as soon as it hoped.

Then there was another turn as the FTSE 100 hit a record high of 8,068 points on 23 April due to expectations that the BoE will start cutting interest rates this year and fears about escalating tensions in the Middle East eased.

The ups and downs serve as useful reminders to focus on the long-term performance of investments rather than short-term market movements.

Europe

Inflation across the eurozone fell by more than expected to 2.4% in the 12 months to March 2024. Despite optimism that interest rates would be cut, the European Central Bank opted to hold rates. Yet, the bank did signal that, if inflation continues to fall, it could cut them in the summer.

PMI data indicates that the eurozone economy returned to growth for the first time since May 2023. The positive figures were driven by stronger than expected output from the service sector, with Spain and Italy providing the strongest boost. However, the two largest economies in the bloc, Germany and France, contracted.

Some EU countries, including Italy and France, could be put under an infringement order procedure for operating budgets with deficits that breach the EU’s rules. Usually, governments have to keep budget deficits below 3% of GDP. The cap was set aside during the Covid-19 pandemic but could be implemented again, which might place pressure on public spending plans.

Similar to the UK, European indexes suffered on 16 April when the Federal Reserve indicated it wouldn’t cut interest rates soon. France’s CAC index fell 1.8% and Spain’s IBEX was down 1.2%.

US

The US private sector added 40,000 more jobs than expected in March 2024, with businesses hiring an additional 184,000 employees. Job growth is one of the measures the Federal Reserve will consider when deciding whether to cut interest rates, so the data led to speculation that rates would fall soon.

Yet, when the rate of inflation was released, it dampened the optimism. In the 12 months to March 2024, inflation was 3.5%, an increase when compared to the 3.2% recorded a month earlier.

Investment markets did benefit when fears that Iran’s attack on Israel would lead to an escalation in the Middle East didn’t materialise. On 15 April, the Dow Jones saw a rise of 0.9%, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.7%, and tech-focused index Nasdaq was up 0.6%.

Asia

China beat its GDP forecast when it posted growth of 5.3% for January to March 2024 when compared to a year earlier. However, China’s National Bureau of Statistics recognised that growth could be hampered. The organisation said the external environment was becoming more “complex, severe, and uncertain”.

Indeed, the country faced several headwinds in April.

First, credit rating agency Fitch has cut the outlook of China’s debt from “stable” to “negative”, as it said the country was facing uncertain economic prospects.

Then, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen voiced concerns that China’s excess manufacturing capital could cause global fallout. She said China was too big to rely on exports for rapid growth and excess capacity was putting pressure on other economies.

While Yellen didn’t make any announcements about trade tariffs on Chinese goods, she said she would not rule out taking more action to protect the US economy from Chinese imports.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.