3 important variables that could affect your sustainable pension withdrawal rate

Retirement is an exciting milestone, with more free time to dedicate to the things you enjoy. Yet, it can also be a daunting time, especially when it comes to managing your finances.

Flexi-access drawdown is a popular way to access your pension savings as it provides flexibility and means you’re in control of your income. However, it also means you’re responsible for ensuring you don’t run out of money.

With the pressure of managing pension withdrawals, it’s perhaps unsurprising that a study in IFA Magazine found that almost half of retirees are worried about spending too much too soon.

Indeed, statistics from the Financial Conduct Authority indicate some retirees could be withdrawing money from their pension at an unsustainable rate.

For example, more than 30% of people accessing a pension with a value between £100,000 and £249,000 in 2023/24, withdrew at least 8% of their pension. Some of these people may have other pensions or assets they could use to fund retirement, but others could find they face a shortfall in the future because they’re accessing their pension at an unsustainable rate.

One of the challenges of managing pension withdrawals is that some factors are outside of your control.

The known unknowns of retirement

When you’re planning your retirement income, you’re likely to need to consider known unknown factors – you know they will affect your retirement plan in some way, but accurately predicting exactly how they’ll affect you at the start of retirement isn’t possible. 

The list of known unknowns might be lengthy and some won’t affect all retirees. However, there are three key variables that most retirees could benefit from considering when calculating their sustainable pension withdrawal rate.

1. Life expectancy

If you knew how long your pension needed to provide an income, you could simply break it down into even blocks and rest assured that you wouldn’t run out.

In reality, you don’t know how long your pension needs to last. The average life expectancy could provide a useful indicator, but it’s far from certain.

According to the Office for National Statistics, a 65-year-old man has an average life expectancy of 85. However, he also has a 1 in 4 chance of reaching 92 and around 1 in 10 will celebrate their 96th birthday. For a 65-year-old woman, the average life expectancy is 87, with a 1 in 4 chance of reaching 94 and around 10% will celebrate their 98th birthday.

So, if you based pension withdrawals on the average life expectancy, there’s a chance that you could outlive your pension by a decade or more.

As a result, erring on the side of caution when calculating how long you’ll spend in retirement could be useful. A retirement plan could help you balance long-term financial security with enjoying your early years of retirement.

2. Inflation

The income you’ll need to maintain your lifestyle during retirement is unlikely to be static. Instead, inflation will usually mean your income will need to increase each year.

The Bank of England (BoE) has an annual inflation target of 2%. While this might seem like it’ll have little effect on your income needs, over decades it could add up. In addition, the recent period of high inflation has highlighted that the cost of goods and services can rise at a faster pace.

According to the BoE, if you retired in 2018 with an annual income of £40,000, just five years later your income will need to have increased to almost £50,000 just to provide you with the same spending power.

Failing to consider the effect inflation might have on your needs and wealth could derail your plans.

Indeed, an IFA Magazine report suggests the number of retirees searching for a job increased by 16% in 2024 when compared to a year earlier due to rising living costs.

3. Investment performance

One of the potential benefits of choosing flexi-access drawdown is that your pension will usually remain invested. This provides an opportunity for your pension to generate investment returns.

However, it’s not always straightforward. The performance of your investments could have a direct effect on the sustainable withdrawal rate.

For instance, during a downturn, you’d need to sell a greater proportion of your pension investments to achieve the same income. This could mean you deplete your pension quicker than expected and leave a potential shortfall in the future.

When weighing up the effect of investment performance, you might need to consider questions like:

• What are my expected investment returns?

• What is an appropriate level of risk for me in retirement?

• How should I manage pension withdrawals if the value of my pension falls?

Regular reviews could help you assess investment performance and make adjustments to your retirement income when appropriate. 

Other unexpected factors could affect your retirement finances too

It’s not just these three known unknowns of retirement that could affect your finances, either. Other variables outside of your control might affect your income needs too, from emergency repairs to your home to care costs later in life.

When creating a retirement plan, adding a buffer and carrying out regular reviews could help you manage your finances and feel confident about the future.

Get in touch to talk about creating a sustainable retirement income

Contact us to talk about your retirement plans and how you might manage financial variables, including known unknowns. A retirement plan could give you confidence in your finances and mean you can focus on enjoying the next chapter of your life.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates, and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts. 

Plans changed? Updating your financial plan could offer reassurance

Even the best-laid financial plan might need to change at times. If you find yourself in that position, you might benefit from reassurance that you can still reach your goals and will be financially secure.

There’s a whole host of reasons why you might want to adjust your financial plan.

In some cases, it might be a decision you’ve made. Perhaps you’ve decided you want to gift money to loved ones to help them reach their goals, or you want to take a higher income from your pension to fund a new-found hobby.

Other times, the changes might be due to factors outside of your control. For example, if you’ve been made redundant, you might need to create an income until you can find a new position.

Whatever the reason, it can be scary to change course. One cause of apprehension might be the fear of the unknown. Fortunately, updating your financial plan could help you feel more in control and confident.

Updating your cashflow model could help you analyse the impact of the changes

When you create a financial plan, one useful tool that you might use is a cashflow model.

You start by inputting some basic financial information into the model. For example, you might add the value of the assets you hold now, your income, and your outgoings.

One of the key benefits of a cashflow model is that it can help you visualise how your wealth might change over time.

So, you need to provide information to allow it to create a forecast too. This data often falls into two categories:

• Your actions – These would be the financial steps you plan to take, such as how much you plan to contribute to your pension each month or the amount you’ll add to an emergency fund.

• Assumptions – Some factors that might affect your finances are outside of your control, so for these areas, you may make realistic assumptions. For example, you might review your pension and include average annual returns of 5%.

With these details, a cashflow model can project how your assets and wealth may change and even look decades ahead so you can consider long-term goals.

As a result, cashflow modelling can help you understand if the steps you’re taking now are enough to secure the future you want. But it’s not just useful when everything is going to plan, a cashflow model may be even more valuable when you face unexpected changes.

It’s important to note that the projections from a cashflow model cannot be guaranteed. However, it can provide a useful indicator and highlight where there could be potential gaps in your financial plan.

A cashflow model could help you assess the short- and long-term impact of your new plans

So, you’ve worked with a financial planner and created a cashflow model that aligned with your aspirations. But now, your plans have been derailed. Luckily, you can update the information and model your new circumstances or goals.

Let’s say you’d previously planned to retire at the age of 65. However, ill health has forced you to step back from work five years sooner than you expected. You might have questions like:

• Can I afford to take an income from my pension in line with my previous plan?

• If I had to take a lower income, how would it affect my lifestyle?

• Are there other assets I could use to supplement an income from my pension?

• Could retiring sooner affect the value of the estate I leave behind for loved ones?

You can alter the information that goes into your cashflow model to help you answer these questions. So, in the above scenario, you might see how taking the same income you’d previously planned but five years earlier affects your risk of running out of money during your lifetime.

You might find that you have enough to be financially secure and can move forward with your retirement plans.

Alternatively, you may find that your new plan might leave you in a financially vulnerable position in the future. In this case, you can use the cashflow model to try different solutions to understand what might work for you.

By realising there’s a potential shortfall sooner, you’re in a better position to bridge gaps or find a different option, so you’re able to proceed with confidence.

Get in touch to update your financial plan

If your circumstances or goals have changed, you can arrange a meeting with our team to update your financial plan. It could help you assess the potential long-term implications of the changes and understand what steps you might need to take to keep your plan on track.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate cashflow modelling.

How to pass on assets to vulnerable family members

When creating an estate plan, there might be people you want to pass wealth to but they’re not in a position to manage their finances. Using a trust could provide a way to leave a vulnerable loved one assets and feel confident they’ll be effectively managed.

Trusts aren’t used as commonly as other ways to pass on wealth, such as gifting or leaving an inheritance directly. In fact, according to government figures, there were only around 733,000 trusts and estates registered on the Trust Registration Service as of March 2024. Yet, in some circumstances, a trust could present a valuable option.

There are many reasons why you might consider someone vulnerable or not want to pass on assets directly to them. You might consider using a trust if you want to pass on wealth to:

• A child

• A person at risk of financial abuse

• Someone who has made poor financial decisions in the past

• An adult who has a disability that affects their ability to manage finances.

A trust may allow you to improve the financial security of loved ones without them being responsible for managing assets.

A trust means someone you choose can manage assets on behalf of beneficiaries

A trust is a legal arrangement that you (the settlor) set up where assets are managed by a person or people (the trustee) for the benefit of one or multiple other people (the beneficiary).

So, while the beneficiary may benefit from the assets, it’s the trustee who will manage them. As the settlor, you can set out how and when you want the assets, and any income they generate, to be used.

For instance, if you want to pass on wealth to your grandchild, you might name their parents as trustees. You could state money may be withdrawn from the trust to cover educational costs and, once the child turns 25, they can withdraw and take control of the remaining assets.

Or, if you want to provide for a disabled adult, you might create a trust that states the trustee is to provide the beneficiary with a regular income for the rest of their life.

Crucially, as the settlor, you can set the terms of the trust so that it suits your goals.

You should note that there are several different types of trust and, once set up, it can be difficult or impossible to reverse the decisions you’ve made. So, seeking professional legal advice if you think a trust could be an option for you may be valuable.

3 important questions to consider if you’re thinking of using a trust

Before you set up a trust, it’s important to consider if it’s the right option for you. Here are three essential questions that may help you start to weigh up the pros and cons.

1. Who would act as the trustee?

Choosing someone to act as a trustee can be difficult, so you might want to consider who you’d ask.

You want a person you can trust to act in line with your wishes and in the best interest of the beneficiaries. However, you may also want to think about the skills they have – are they comfortable handling finances? Are they organised enough to manage the trust effectively?

You can choose more than one trustee, and set out whether you’d like them to make decisions together. You may also choose a professional to act as a trustee, such as a solicitor or financial planner, who would charge a fee for their services.

2. What would be the aim of the trust?

Thinking about the reasons for creating a trust is essential, as it might affect the type of trust that’s right for you and the terms you set out.

For example, a trust that’s simply holding assets until a certain date could be very different from one you want to use to preserve family wealth for future generations.

In some cases, you might find that an alternative option is better suited to your needs.

Let’s say you want to set money aside for your grandchild to access when they turn 18. A Junior ISA (JISA) allows you to save or invest up to £9,000 in 2024/25 tax-efficiently on behalf of a child. The money held in a JISA is locked away until they reach adulthood. So, it might be more appropriate and avoid the complexity a trust may add.

3. How much control would you give the trustee?

If you have a clearly defined idea about how you want the trust to operate, you might choose to set out exactly when the assets can be used. Alternatively, you may give more control to your trustee and allow them to use their judgment.

There isn’t a right or wrong answer, so focusing on what’s important to you is key.

When setting out terms or restrictions, you may want to spend some time weighing up different scenarios and the effect they might have.

For instance, if you want the trust to provide a defined income, you might want to consider:

• How the trustee should adjust the income for inflation

• Whether they can withdraw a lump sum in certain circumstances

• If there is a point you want the beneficiaries to take control of the assets.

Rigid restrictions could have unintended consequences.

Let’s say your loved one has an opportunity to purchase a property. Withdrawing a lump sum to act as a deposit could mean their day-to-day costs fall and provide greater security when compared to renting, but restrictions might mean this isn’t possible. Or if they face a medical emergency, accessing the wealth held in a trust could enable them to receive treatment quicker or provide more options.

Contact us to talk about your estate plan

A trust is often just a small part of an effective estate plan. If you’d like to discuss how you might pass on wealth to loved ones in a way that aligns with your goals and considers your wider financial plan, please get in touch.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate estate planning, tax planning, or trusts.

5 useful allowances and exemptions that will reset at the end of the tax year

Using allowances and exemptions could reduce your overall tax bill and help you get more out of your money. On 5 April 2025, the current tax year will end, and many tax-efficient allowances and exemptions will reset. So, here are five that you may want to consider using before the 2025/26 tax year starts.

1. ISA allowance

ISAs provide a popular way to tax-efficiently save and invest. Indeed, the latest government figures show in 2022/23, 12.4 million ISAs were subscribed to with around £71.6 billion being collectively added to accounts.

For the 2024/25 tax year, you can add up to £20,000 to ISAs. If you hold money in a Cash ISA, the interest you receive wouldn’t be liable for Income Tax. Similarly, if you invest through a Stocks and Shares ISA, any returns generated aren’t liable for Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

If you don’t use your ISA allowance before the tax year ends, you’ll lose it. So, it could be worthwhile reviewing your saving and investing goals now.

Before you place money into an ISA, it’s often a good idea to consider your goal. For short-term goals, a Cash ISA might be suitable for your needs. On the other hand, if you’re putting money away for a goal that’s more than five years away, you may want to consider if you could benefit from investing.

In addition, if you’re aged between 18 and 39, you could open a Lifetime ISA (LISA). In the 2024/25 tax year, you can add up to £4,000 to a LISA and receive a 25% government bonus. The £4,000 LISA allowance counts towards your overall £20,000 ISA allowance.

However, if you withdraw money from a LISA before the age of 60 for a purpose other than buying your first home, you’d pay a 25% penalty. As a result, a LISA is often most suitable for those saving to get on the property ladder.

2. Dividend Allowance

If you’re a business owner or hold shares in some companies, you might receive dividends.

You don’t pay tax on dividends that fall within your Personal Allowance, which is £12,570 in 2024/25. In addition, you can receive up to £500 in dividends before Dividend Tax is due under your Dividend Allowance. So, dividends could offer a valuable way to boost your income without increasing your tax liability.

You cannot carry forward unused Dividend Allowance.

Even if your dividends could exceed the allowance, the tax rate you pay could be lower than receiving a comparable amount that was liable for Income Tax. The rate of Dividend Tax you pay depends on your Income Tax band. In 2024/25, the rates are:

• Basic rate: 8.75%

• Higher rate: 33.75%

• Additional rate: 39.35%

So, making dividends part of your financial plan could reduce your overall tax bill even if you’re liable for Dividend Tax.

3. Capital Gains Tax Annual Exempt Amount

Chancellor Rachel Reeves made several changes to CGT in the Autumn Budget, including increasing the main rates. Consequently, you could find your tax liability is higher than expected when you make a profit when you dispose of some assets.

Indeed, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimates CGT could raise £15.2 billion in 2024/25, which may then increase to £23.5 billion in 2028/29.

From 30 October 2024, the standard rates of CGT are:

• 24% if you’re a higher- or additional-rate taxpayer

• 18% if you’re a basic-rate taxpayer and the gains fall within the basic-rate Income Tax band.

Importantly, the Annual Exempt Amount means you can make profits of up to £3,000 in 2024/25 before CGT is due. So, if you plan to dispose of assets, timing the decision to make use of this exemption could be valuable.

You cannot carry forward the Annual Exempt Amount into the new tax year if you don’t use it.

4. Pension Annual Allowance

Pensions provide a tax-efficient way to save for your retirement as contributions benefit from tax relief and the interest or investment returns generated are tax-free.

In 2024/25, the Pension Annual Allowance is £60,000 – this is the amount you can tax-efficiently add to your pension in a single tax year, so you might also need to consider employer contributions and those made by other third parties. However, you can only claim tax relief on up to 100% of your annual earnings, or £2,880 if you’re a non-taxpayer.

There are two reasons why your Annual Allowance may be lower.

• If your adjusted income is more than £260,000 and your threshold income is more than £200,000, the allowance will taper. For every £2 your income exceeds the adjusted income threshold, your Annual Allowance will fall by £1. The tapering stops at £360,000, so everyone retains an allowance of £10,000.

• If you’ve already flexibly accessed your pension, the Money Purchase Annual Allowance may affect you. This reduces the amount you can tax-efficiently add to your pension to £10,000.

You can carry your Annual Allowance forward for up to three tax years. So, you have until 5 April 2025 to use any unused allowance from 2021/22.

5. Inheritance Tax annual exemption

Government figures suggest Inheritance Tax (IHT) bills are on the rise. Indeed, IHT tax receipts between April 2024 and October 2024 were £5 billion – around £500 million higher than the same period last year.

If your estate could be liable for IHT when you die, passing on wealth during your lifetime could be a valuable way to reduce a potential bill.

However, not all gifts are considered immediately outside of your estate for IHT purposes. Some may be included in your estate for up to seven years, which are known as “potentially exempt transfers”.

So, using allowances and exemptions that enable you to pass gifts to your loved ones without worrying about IHT might be an important part of your estate plan.

In 2024/25, the annual exemption means you can pass on £3,000 without worrying about IHT. You can carry forward your annual gifting exemption from the previous tax year, so you could gift up to £6,000 in a single tax year and have it fall immediately outside your estate.

There are often other allowances or ways you could reduce your estate’s potential IHT bill. Please contact us to talk about steps you may take. 

Get in touch to discuss your end-of-year tax plan

If you’d like to talk about which allowances and exemptions you may want to use to reduce your tax bill in 2024/25, please get in touch. We’ll work with you to help you understand which steps could be right for your circumstances and aspirations.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

Please do not act based on anything you might read in this article. All contents are based on our understanding of HMRC legislation, which is subject to change.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A pension is a long-term investment not normally accessible until 55 (57 from April 2028). The fund value may fluctuate and can go down, which would have an impact on the level of pension benefits available. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The tax implications of pension withdrawals will be based on your individual circumstances. Thresholds, percentage rates, and tax legislation may change in subsequent Finance Acts. 

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate tax planning, Inheritance Tax planning, or estate planning.

Investment market update: December 2024

Political instability in Europe and further afield affected investment markets in December. Read on to find out what other factors may have influenced your investment returns at the end of 2024.

Remember to focus on your long-term goals when assessing the performance of your investments. The value of your assets rising and falling is part of investing. What’s important is that the risk profile is appropriate for you and that your decisions align with your circumstances and aspirations.

UK

Hopes that the Bank of England (BoE) would cut its base interest rate before the end of 2024 were dashed when data showed inflation had increased.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics show inflation was 2.6% in the 12 months to November 2024, which was up from the 2.3% recorded a month earlier.

This led to the BoE deciding to hold interest rates despite speculation that a cut was on the horizon. The central bank also said it expects GDP growth to be weaker at the end of 2024 than it had previously predicted.

Data paints a gloomy picture for the manufacturing sector.

According to S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), UK manufacturing hit a nine-month low as output fell for the first time in seven months in November 2024. The decline was driven by new orders falling. Notably, manufacturers are struggling to export their goods, with new orders contracting for 31 consecutive months. Demand has fallen in key markets, including the US, China, the EU, and Middle East.

A survey from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) indicates that manufacturers aren’t optimistic about the future either. The organisation said orders at UK factories “collapsed” in December to their lowest level since the height of the pandemic in 2020. The slump was linked to political instability in some European markets and uncertainty over US trade policy when Donald Trump becomes president.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to reduce UK trade barriers with the US, stating she wanted to end the “fractious” post-Brexit accord as she went to meet eurozone finance ministers at the start of the month. Closer ties with the EU may benefit some firms that are struggling with exports.

Retailers are also experiencing challenges.

The festive period is often crucial for retailers. Yet, data from Rendle Intelligence and Insights are “bleak” with footfall in the first two weeks of December down 3.1% when compared to 2023. A slew of high street names entered administration in 2024, including Homebase, The Body Shop, and Ted Baker, and the research suggests more could follow suit in the year ahead.

December was a month of ups and downs for investors in the UK stock market.

The month started strong when stock markets increased across Europe on 3 December – dubbed a “Santa rally” in the media. The FTSE 100 – an index of the 100 largest firms on the London Stock Exchange – was up 0.7% despite worries about the economic outlook. EasyJet led the way with a 4% boost.

Yet, just mere weeks later, on 17 December, the FTSE 100 hit a three-week low and lost 0.7%. The biggest faller was Bunzl, a distribution and outsourcing company, which fell 4.6% when it warned persistent deflation would weigh on profits in 2024.

While it might have felt like a bumpy year as an investor, research shows the FTSE 100 has performed well. Indeed, according to AJ Bell, the index had its best year since 2021 and delivered a return of 11.4%. The top performers were NatWest and Rolls-Royce, while JD Sports and B&M were at the bottom of the pack.

Europe

Much like the UK, the manufacturing sector in the eurozone is struggling. Indeed, PMI data shows the sector continued to contract in November 2024 as new factory orders fell. Germany recorded the fastest drop in output and, as the bloc’s largest economy, could drag economic data down.

Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, told the Guardian: “These numbers look terrible. It’s like the eurozone’s manufacturing recession is never going to end.”

Credit ratings firm Moody’s unexpectedly downgraded French government bonds, which are now rated Aa3 – the fourth highest rating – following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government. MPs had refused to accept tax hikes and spending cuts in Barnier’s Budget.

Moody’s said: “Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year. As a result, we forecast that France’s public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario.”

The news, unsurprisingly, led to French bonds weakening.

European markets also benefited from the so-called Santa rally on 3 December.

Germany’s DAX, a stock index of the 30 largest German companies on the Frankfurt Exchange, broke the 20,000-point barrier for the first time, despite a new election being called after the government collapsed. The recent boost means the DAX increased by around 3,000 points during 2024.

Similarly, Paris’s stock market index, the CAC, gained 0.6%. Luxury goods makers, like Hermes and LVMH, were among the biggest risers.

US

Unlike Europe, US manufacturing could give investors something to be optimistic about.

The PMI reading for November 2024 was 49.7, up from 48.5. While this means the sector is still below the 50-mark indicating growth, the signs suggest it’s stabilising and could move into more positive territory in the new year.

The service sector paints an even better picture. The PMI indicated the sector is growing at its fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic. Expectations of higher output linked to growing optimism about business conditions under the Trump administration led to a flash PMI reading of 56.6 for December, comfortably placing the sector in growth territory.

The job market also bounced back after disappointing figures in October. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, 227,000 jobs were added to the economy in November, compared to just 36,000 a month earlier.

Yet, inflation continues to weigh on the US. In the 12 months to November 2024, inflation increased slightly to 2.7%.

While the Federal Reserve went ahead with an interest rate cut, taking the base rate to 4.25%, it also suggested it would make fewer cuts than expected in 2025 if inflation remains stubborn. The comments led to the S&P 500 index closing almost 3% down, while the tech-focused Nasdaq fell 3.6% on 19 December.

President-elect Trump is set to take office on 20 January 2025, but his plans are already influencing markets. Indeed, on 2 December, the dollar rallied after Trump warned countries in the BRICS bloc that he would impose 100% tariffs if they challenged the US dollar by creating a new rival currency.

The BRICS bloc was originally composed of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which led to the acronym. They have since been joined by Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Asia

In a move that shocked citizens, South Korea’s president declared martial law on 3 December, which led to political chaos. The uncertainty led to South Korea’s currency dropping to a two-year low and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which track the country’s shares, fell sharply. Indeed, the MSCI South Korea EFT dropped by more than 5% in the immediate aftermath.

Outside of South Korea, stock market performances were more positive in Asia.

On 9 December, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up by 2% after China said it would implement a more proactive fiscal policy and planned to loosen monetary policy in 2025. The market was also aided by consumer inflation in China falling to a five-month low in November to 0.2%.

On the same day, Japan revised its economic growth upwards, leading to a 0.3% boost to the Nikkei 225 index.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute financial advice, which should be based on your individual circumstances. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

Investment market update: November 2024

On 5 November 2024, US citizens voted for their next president, and the election had a knock-on effect on investment markets and business prospects around the world.

Republican Party nominee Donald Trump will serve a second term as president of the US. Trump has previously spoken about imposing harsh import tariffs, including a tariff of up to 60% on goods imported from China or a blanket 20% tariff on every US trading partner.

So, it’s unsurprising that the results of the election are being felt across the world. Indeed, Bloomberg’s Commodity Index suggests the prices of industrial metals and commodities have already slumped due to concerns about a “tit-for-tat global trade war”.

UK

The Labour government delivered its Autumn Budget at the end of October, and the repercussions were still being felt at the start of November.

Credit ratings agency Moody’s said the Budget would be an “additional challenge” for public finances as the announcements would do little to boost UK economic growth. It noted there was also a limited buffer if the UK faced a financial shock.

Similarly, S&P stated that public finances would be “constrained” but added that public investment plans could create a more business-friendly environment.

The FTSE 100 dropped to a three-month low on 8 November. This was partly due to retailers suffering losses as it became clear how higher rates of employer National Insurance contributions announced in the Budget could affect profitability. Marks & Spencer saw a 4.5% drop, and Tesco (2.9%), JD Sports (2.7%), and Sainsbury’s (2.5%) all suffered losses too.

On the same day, housebuilder Vistry issued its second profit warning in as many months, after it said cost overruns on building projects were worse than previously thought. This led to its share price tumbling almost 20%.

The headline economic figures released in November indicate the UK is stagnating.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), GDP per head fell 0.1% in the third quarter of 2024 in real terms – the measure is used as an indicator of the country’s living standards.

In addition, ONS figures show inflation increased to 2.3% in the 12 months to October 2024. The rise could mean the Bank of England delays plans to reduce its base interest rate.

Readings from Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI) suggest business activity is weakening. However, some businesses may have paused investments and key decisions until the Budget was delivered, so activity could pick up in the final months of 2024.

In October, the British manufacturing PMI had a reading of 49.9 – slightly below the 50 mark that indicates growth. While still in growth territory, the service sector also slowed when compared to a month earlier with a reading of 52.

There’s already speculation about what a Trump presidency will mean for the UK.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research said the protectionist measures planned by Trump could halve the UK’s economic growth in 2025 and 2026.

Yet, there may be some good news for investors. On the back of Trump’s victory, the pound weakened on 6 November. This led to the FTSE 100 jumping 1.3% as share prices lifted for multinational firms. For example, equipment rental company Ashtead, which would benefit from a strong US economy, saw a 6.6% boost.

Europe

While PMI readings suggest the eurozone economy is improving, it has recorded production falling for 19 consecutive months as of October 2024. The bloc’s two largest economies are playing a role in dragging down the figure as both France and Germany are affected by exports falling and weak demand.

Trump’s victory also had repercussions across Europe.

Shares in European renewable energy companies slid on 6 November as Trump has previously spoken about plans to boost US oil production. Danish wind turbine maker Vestas Wind Systems fell 8% and German solar energy producer SMA Solar Technology was down 10.4%.

Similarly, the threat of tariffs from the US hit German carmakers on 6 November. Porsche was the biggest faller on the German index DAX after it tumbled 7.4%, followed by BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen.

US

Just days before the US election, official figures showed that just 12,000 new jobs were added to the US economy in October. The figure is far below the 113,000 that economists expected and the 254,000 recorded in September. The low number may be due to businesses holding back decisions until election uncertainty passed, but it may have dealt a blow to the Democratic Party.

On 6 November, the day after the US election, the US dollar had its best day in four years as it climbed 1.5% against a basket of other countries.

In pre-trading on 6 November, shares in Trump Media & Technology were up almost 36%. Similarly, Elon Musk, who is a supporter of Trump, saw his business Tesla receive a 13% boost in premarket trading.

When the US stock market opened, it reached an all-time high. The S&P 500 index was up 1.9% and the Dow Jones benefited from a 3% bump as investors bet on Trump’s policies stimulating economic growth.

US company Disney also saw a boost on 14 November and share prices hit a six-month high. The value of the business increased by almost 10% thanks to the success of films Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. 

Inflation in the US continues to be above the 2% target. In the 12 months to October 2024, inflation was 2.6%, up from the 2.4% recorded in September.

Asia

China responded to the threat of Trump tariffs saying there would be no winners if a trade war began. Instead, ambassador Xie Feng said the US and China should focus on mutually beneficial cooperation to achieve many “great and good things”.

It was good news for China’s economy in October, with an official PMI showing factory activity returned to growth, ending five consecutive months of contraction. On 1 November, the news led to Hang Seng in Hong Kong adding 1% and the Shanghai Composite index rising by 0.4%.

Perhaps surprisingly, Japan’s Nikkei index gained as it waited for the outcome of the US general election on 5 November. The index rose 1.9% as a weaker yen boosted Japanese exporters’ overseas earnings.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

The value of your investments (and any income from them) can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investments should be considered over the longer term and should fit in with your overall attitude to risk and financial circumstances.

What the 2025 Stamp Duty changes mean for the property market

During the Autumn Budget, chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled an increase to Stamp Duty that could affect buyers of second homes and property investors. The temporary higher thresholds for Stamp Duty are also set to end in 2025 and could lead to larger tax bills when buying property.

Read on to find out what you need to know about the tax.

Stamp Duty is a type of tax you pay when buying property or land

In England and Northern Ireland, Stamp Duty is a type of tax you may pay when buying property or land. The rate you pay varies depending on the value of the property or land, and whether it’ll be your main home.

Please note, Scotland and Wales have similar taxes to Stamp Duty known as “Land and Buildings Transaction Tax” and “Land Transaction Tax” respectively. The thresholds and reliefs for these taxes are different to Stamp Duty.

The Stamp Duty surcharge for second properties has increased by 2%

During the Budget, Reeves announced that changes to the rates of Stamp Duty when buying additional properties would rise from 31 October 2024.

The “Higher Rate for Additional Dwellings” previously meant that people buying a second property or investors paid a 3% Stamp Duty surcharge. This surcharge has now increased to 5%. As a result, those looking to expand their property portfolio could face a larger bill than expected.

In the Budget speech, Reeves said this change would “support over 130,000 additional transactions from people buying their first home, or moving home over the next five years”.

The Stamp Duty thresholds will fall on 1 April 2025

As well as the higher rates for second properties, the thresholds for paying Stamp Duty are set to rise and could affect home movers and first-time buyers.

Former prime minister Liz Truss temporarily slashed Stamp Duty thresholds in 2022 as part of the “mini-Budget”. This temporary measure will end on 1 April 2025.

This means that if you purchase property before the 31 March deadline, the thresholds and rates of Stamp Duty will be:

However, if the property transaction went through on or after 1 April 2025, the rates and thresholds will be:

Let’s say you’re buying a property worth £600,000 and it will be your only home. Under the current rules, you’d be liable for Stamp Duty of £17,500. If you delayed buying until after the change comes into force on 1 April 2025, you’d pay an extra £2,500 in Stamp Duty.

The first-time buyer’s relief will also change.

Up to 31 March 2025, first-time buyers can benefit from a discount if the property they are buying is worth less than £625,000. Eligible first-time buyers don’t need to pay Stamp Duty on the first £425,000 and would pay a lower rate of 5% on the portion of the property valued between £425,001 and £625,000.

From 1 April 2025, the threshold for paying Stamp Duty as a first-time buyer will fall to £300,000, and they will pay Stamp Duty at a rate of 5% on the portion between £300,001 and £500,000. If the price of the property exceeds £500,000, the relief cannot be used.

Stamp Duty changes could lead to a jump in property transactions

In a bid to avoid potentially higher Stamp Duty, it’s expected that those currently purchasing property will try to push transactions through before 1 April 2025. Some people who have been contemplating buying property in the new year might also be tempted to start the process sooner to complete the transaction before the changes come in.

Indeed, speaking to the BBC, Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide, predicts a boost in activity followed by a six month slump. He noted that the effect of the changes is not likely to be as large as previous ones as high interest rates are still putting off some buyers.

Still, the changes could lead to a sizeable jump in property transactions during the first quarter of 2025.

Contact us to talk about your mortgage needs

As a mortgage adviser, we could offer you support when you’re searching for a mortgage deal if you plan to purchase property or land in 2025.

If you’re hoping to complete a property purchase before the Stamp Duty thresholds and reliefs change, ensuring the mortgage application process is as smooth as possible could be crucial. We’re here to offer you guidance and help you minimise delays.

Please note:

This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on a mortgage or other loans secured on it.

The Financial Conduct Authority does not regulate buy-to-let (pure) and commercial mortgages.