High inflation has been a hot topic over the last couple of years, and as its pace stabilises, you might think it no longer needs to be part of your financial plan. Yet, skipping inflation when calculating your long-term finances could leave you with a shortfall.
The government sets the Bank of England (BoE) a target of keeping inflation at 2%.
The BoE explains that inflation that is too high or moves around a lot makes it hard for businesses to set the right prices and for people to plan their spending. However, inflation that is too low, or even negative, may put people off spending because they expect prices to fall. This hesitation to spend could lead to companies failing and people losing their jobs.
As a result, stable inflation is important for the economy.
A combination of the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as other factors, led to the UK and many other countries experiencing a period of high inflation. Indeed, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), inflation reached a peak of 11.1% in October 2022 – the highest rate recorded in more than 40 years.
The good news is that the rate of inflation has since fallen and started to stabilise. In the 12 months to August 2024, the ONS reported inflation was slightly above the BoE’s target at 2.2%.
While the immediate pressure of prices rising sharply has eased, that doesn’t mean you can forget about inflation when you’re reviewing your long-term finances.
Even when inflation is stable, prices are often rising
While inflation meeting the BoE’s target won’t often make headlines, it still means that the cost of goods and services is rising. You might think 2% inflation won’t affect your finances too much. Yet, when you look at the long-term impact, the effect could be harmful if it’s something you’ve overlooked.
According to the BoE, inflation averaged 2% a year between 2010 and 2020. So, if you had £20,000 in 2010, you’d need almost £24,320 in 2020 just to maintain the spending power you had a decade ago.
That could have a substantial effect on some parts of your financial plan. For instance, if you’ve set a retirement income without considering how it may need to grow to support your lifestyle, you could find you face a shortfall. During a retirement that could span decades, the effects of even 2% inflation might really add up.
Inflation has only hit the target rate 30% of the time since 1997
What’s more, while the BoE has an inflation target, there are factors outside of its control that may cause it to rise or fall, as the last few years have demonstrated.
Indeed, according to a report in FTAdviser, since 1997, the BoE has missed its target around 70% of the time, and it’s more likely to be above the target than below it.
As a result, even if you’ve factored a 2% rise in inflation into your long-term plan, you could still experience outgoings rising at a quicker pace than your income. Considering the effects of a high inflation environment may help you secure your finances and keep goals on track even when factors outside of your control lead to expenses increasing.
Making inflation part of your financial plan
It’s impossible to know what the rate of inflation will be next year, and when you’re creating a long-term financial plan, you might want to weigh up the effect of inflation over decades. While you can’t predict what will happen, there are often steps you can take to incorporate it into your finances and provide security.
As part of your financial plan, you might consider how to:
Create a financial buffer in case inflation is higher than you expect
Use other assets to support your income during periods of high inflation
Grow your wealth at a pace that could match or beat the rate of inflation
Regularly review your short- and long-term finances to ensure they continue to reflect your current circumstances.
An effective financial plan could help you prepare for the unknown, including the inflation rate.
Contact us to discuss how to incorporate inflation into your financial plan
If you’d like to review your financial plan and understand how inflation might affect your outgoings, we could help. Please contact us to arrange a meeting with our team.
Please note:
This blog is for general information only and does not constitute advice. The information is aimed at retail clients only.